Two Cents Worth: Permian vs Central

The District 2-6A finale features Odessa Permian and San Angelo Central meeting at historic Ratliff Stadium on November 6.  The gloves are off in this MojoLand exclusive.

While the weekly MojoLand Previews are objective and packed with raw data and comparisons, Terry’s Two Cents Worth pulls back the curtain on game strategies and the strengths / weaknesses of the Concho Cats.  We’ve even brought in a panel of Sports experts to weigh in on the game.

In head-to-head competition, Permian currently holds a 39-15-1 all-time record over Central.  The Black Cats are still maintaining a balanced attack between pass and run.  The Bobcats on the other hand lean heavily on their offensive line and running back – they are a run-first team.

What's at Stake
Permian is rocking with a phenomenal 9-game win streak.  A win for the Panthers completes the perfect undefeated regular season sweep, while capturing back-to-back District 2-6A Champion titles.  A Mojo loss to Central would result in a co-champion sharing with the winner of the Midland Lee vs. Midland High game.

After suffering a 43-40 loss to the Bulldogs, San Angelo is hopeful of being the only team to upset Permian this season.  Regardless of what happens between the Rebels and Dawgs in Midland, the Bobcats will be the second seed in the Division II playoffs.

Game Strategy  
🏈 When Permian has the Ball…
Operating almost exclusively out of a 3-4 or 3-3-5 hybrid defensive shell, San Angelo has good size on the line but being able to pursue with any speed is not their strength.  The Bobcats are very susceptible to getting burned all night on quick out passes to the flat, QB options and draw plays.

Friday night’s loss to the Bulldogs exposed a continuing issue for the Bobcat defense – severe lateral speed and containment limitations.  Their front-line anchors bring plenty of brute physical mass to the interior gaps, but their ability to pursue with any closing speed vanishes the moment you pull them out of their static blocks.

This lack of pursuit means the perimeter lanes are wide open for an absolute track meet.  If Air Vickers opens up the script by distributing quick out passes or bubble screens, it forces Central’s second-level linebackers to run side-to-side. They are likely to be sucking wind by the time the halftime whistle blows.

The absolute silver bullet in this matchup is the quarterback draw – it will eat this Bobcat defense alive.  Because the linebackers have a tendency to over commit to downhill vertical threats, a delayed draw will catch them entirely out of position.  Once Vickers (or Cayden Taylor, Mark Herrera, and Josh Curry) clears the initial line of scrimmage, Central’s safety net is far too sparse to prevent massive, chunk-yardage explosive plays.

👀 Defensive players to watch:  Riley Oines, Tyson Mitchell, Solomone Ma’afu, Kash Jastrow, Nepote Kalamafoni, Chris Walker, Troy Ceballos, and Blaine Belcher.
  

🏈 When Central has the Ball…
Offensively, Central likes to operate out of the shotgun and pistol sets with occasional play-action.  The Bobcats favor lining up either in a 2×2 or three receiver stack.  More times than not, the Concho Cats rely heavily on Zeyvion Johnson to carry the load from his running back position.

To throw a wrench into their offensive tempo, the primary objective is straightforward:  contain Johnson and force the Central quarterback to win the game with his arm.  Operating behind a massive 260-pound line, Johnson is a pure downhill volume workhorse who thrives on worn-down defenses.

The key to neutralizing and derailing the ‘Z Train’ – (a) set the edges, (b) shoot the gaps, and (c) swarm in waves.  The Black Cat front seven must play disciplined assignment football, swarm the point of attack, and deliver thigh-pad wrapping tackles to limit his second-effort yards.

Once you suffocate the ground game and force the Bobcats into long-yardage passing situations, quarterback Micah Smith drops directly into a treacherous defensive trap.  While he is highly capable of engineering scoring drives, his statistical profile reveals a highly erratic passer under duress.  His season total sits at 16 touchdown passes, but he’s also thrown an alarming 14 interceptions.

Mojo’s Malachi Mendoza, Nata Cardoza, and Aiden Medina can absolutely feast on Smith’s passing tendencies if they sit back in zone windows and bait his vision.  Showing a pre-snap press alignment before dropping into a robber shell will completely scramble his keys.  If the ‘Mojo D’ can squeeze the pocket and force him to throw on the run, the ball will be up for grabs all evening.

👀 Offensive players to watch:  Zeyvion Johnson, Zeyvion Johnson, Micah Smith, Gavin Johnson, Jesse Smith, Ellis Johnson, and Zeyvion Johnson.

Stay Disciplined
One of the keys to the game is Permian cannot continue to commit a bunch of penalties.  The Panthers have been penalized 69 times for 652 yards this season, 48 of those were by the offense and other 21 by the defense.  The Black Cats were guilty of drawing yellow laundry 12 times in the last game against Midland High.  Mojo has to refocus with better discipline and clean up those freebies.

Survey Says...
Since Permian has had an extra week to prepare for Central, the Bobcats will see a fresh Panthers team ready for the second season.  Forecast calls for a perfect football weather Friday night – kickoff temp of 64° with winds out of the east at just 5-10 mph.

With all being considered, Permian rolls to 10-0 (4-0 in district), securing an undefeated season and sole possession of the district crown… as back-to-back District Champions!

Authors:  T Alan, Gem
  


Sports Media Panel Picks
Our panel thinks Permian will continue to roll against San Angelo Central.  In our Midland High picks, Trey Francis was top prognosticator with his 41-20 prediction.  The Panthers spanked the Bulldogs 42-17.


> Matt Stepp (Texas Football) – Permian by 23
> Tony Blalock (TXHSFB) – Permian 42, Central 17  (+25)
> Adrian Martinez (MTZ Media) – Permian 49, Central 14  (+35)
> Dalton Arredondo (KMID2) – Permian 0, Central 0  (+0)
> Trey Francis (KMID2) – Permian 0, Central 0  (+0)
> Darby McCormick (CBS7) – Permian 0, Central 0  (+0)
> Grabiel Silva (KWES9) – Permian 42, Central 21  (+21)
> Ethan Becker (KWES9) – Permian 49, Central 21  (+28)
> Christopher Hadorn (MRT) – Permian 0, Central 0  (+0)
> Gem (MojoLand) – Permian 42, Central 20  (+22)
> Terry Alan (MojoLand) – Permian 45, Central 14  (+31)

=  Consensus (7-0) – Permian 45, Central 18  (+27)

Pick ’em Scoreboard – Gem 1 | Darby 1 | Trey 1


Preview:  Permian vs Central Bobcats – [ HERE ]